Predicting Which Massachusetts Team Will Draw the Most Bets

Sports betting in Massachusetts is set to commence soon, with retail casinos projected to begin offering sports wagering in January 2023. If the state regulatory process goes smoothly, online apps could also be up and running by late February.

This places us right in the midst of the NBA and NHL seasons, capturing the attention of fans who support the Boston Celtics and Boston Bruins. It is expected that these ardent fans will eagerly bet on their beloved teams. The New England Patriots’ season will probably have concluded by this time, while the Boston Red Sox will be preparing for spring training.

However, among the top four teams in The Bay State, which team is expected to attract the highest number of bets?

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Ranking the popularity of Boston’s ‘Big 4’ teams

Without a doubt, Boston houses some of the most devoted sports enthusiasts in the nation. These fans stand unwaveringly by the ‘Big 4’ teams, through thick and thin. As the introduction of legal sports betting in Massachusetts looms near, the loyalty of these fans is anticipated to wield considerable influence in the state’s betting industry. When contemplating which teams will attract the highest number of wagers, gauging a team’s popularity proves to be an invaluable resource.

Popularity by TV ratings

Traditionally, the popularity of a team has been determined by TV ratings, following the old-school approach. The Nielsen TV Ratings provide the most reliable data in this regard. Several factors influence these ratings, such as the team’s success and the time of year. For instance, TV viewership tends to decrease during the summer months.

The New England Patriots had an impressive viewership of nearly 38.5 million per game in 2021, ranking seventh-highest in the NFL. The Red Sox, on the other hand, averaged between 3.6 to 4.2 million viewers per game last season. The Bruins had a solid average of 3.4 million viewers during the 2021-2022 season. Determining the viewership metric for the Celtics is a bit more challenging. When their games are limited to the local market, they fall behind the other teams. However, when their games are nationally televised, they surpass the Red Sox numbers.

In their matchups this season, the Bruins have slightly surpassed the Celtics in total household impressions. Nevertheless, the Celtics have maintained an advantage over the Bruins in the men age 25-54 and adults age 25-54 demographics.

It should be emphasized that football reigns supreme in terms of TV viewership. Considering that the NFL has only 17 regular season games, while hockey and basketball have over 80 games, and baseball has over 160 games, it becomes evident that the supply and demand dynamics will consistently favor the Patriots in Massachusetts.

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Social Media following

In the present era, gauging one’s popularity can be easily done by examining the number of followers on social media platforms. Unlike 15 years ago, professional teams did not possess any social media presence. However, in today’s landscape, almost every team has established accounts on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and Snapchat. Moreover, they have dedicated teams to efficiently manage and interact with fans on these platforms.

These are the rankings of Boston’s ‘Big 4’ teams based on their number of followers on Twitter and Instagram.

The Boston Celtics have acquired a fan base of 10.8 million supporters, while the New England Patriots boast a social media following of 9.4 million. The Boston Red Sox enjoy a substantial fan following of 3.3 million, whereas the Boston Bruins have amassed 3.1 million supporters on social media.

The prominence of these numbers primarily reflects society and culture, particularly the high level of engagement NBA players and fans exhibit on social media platforms. Therefore, it is unsurprising to observe the Celtics leading the way.

Star attractions

These four franchises boast a storied past, adorned with multiple championships. However, in today’s sports landscape, it is predominantly the players who captivate audiences and drive attendance. Notably, these individuals also attract numerous prop bets.

Tom Brady, the iconic figure of sports for a generation, was the leading force behind Boston’s governance until recently. His remarkable contributions brought six championships to the city. However, with Brady’s departure to Tampa Bay, the Patriots are now in search of a new shining star. It remains uncertain whether Mac Jones will fill that role or not. In the NFL, quarterbacks typically assume the role of the team’s standout star.

The Boston Celtics have a clear understanding of their star players. Jayson Tatum has established himself as one of the premier talents in the NBA, evident from his impressive performance. During the holiday season last year, Tatum ranked among the Top-10 players in the league for jersey sales, further solidifying his status. Additionally, the Celtics boast another exceptional young talent in Jaylen Brown, whose skills would easily make him the standout player on most other teams.

Currently, the Boston Red Sox are experiencing significant changes. After finishing in last place in the AL East, the team is bidding farewell to shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who will be joining the San Diego Padres. However, they will still retain the talents of slugger Rafael Devers and pitcher Chris Sale. Furthermore, the Red Sox have the potential to make a significant impact in free agency.

The players who excel in hockey are the ones who score goals and those who prevent goals. The Boston Bruins are fortunate to have skilled individuals in both positions. Linus Ullmark, the team’s goalie, currently leads the NHL in wins and save percentage this season. On the other hand, David Pastrnak is tied for fifth place in the league for goals scored. Up to this point, both players have been performing exceptionally well for the Bruins, making a significant impact.

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So which team will bring in the most bets?

It is evident that the New England Patriots will dominate the betting handle in Massachusetts once sports betting becomes accessible. This expectation is justified by the patterns observed in other markets.

In 2021, DraftKings Sportsbook revealed the top five teams that attracted the highest handle.

The sports teams mentioned are the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Phoenix Suns, Brooklyn Nets, and Green Bay Packers.

This information is solely based on data from a single prominent sportsbook. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that three NFL teams are among the top 5. The Suns and Nets are likely benefiting from significant wagers placed by individual bettors. This observation is supported by the fact that the top 5 teams with the highest number of bets placed in 2021 predominantly consist of NFL teams.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Los Angeles Dodgers

It is evident that bettors tend to support winning teams. Currently, the Celtics and the Bruins are dominating in this regard. However, considering the immense popularity of basketball betting, I anticipate the Celtics maintaining their position as the second most favored team.

Although baseball and hockey are popular sports in Boston, they do not attract the same level of betting crowds as football and basketball. However, with the Bruins aiming for a Stanley Cup victory, it is likely that they will receive a significant amount of bets early on. The real question is, how long will it take for the Red Sox to regain their competitive edge? Assuming both teams have an equal chance of winning, I believe that the Red Sox will generate a higher volume of betting activity compared to the Bruins.

Once Massachusetts establishes itself as a well-established betting market, it is highly anticipated that a majority of individuals will place their bets on the Patriots. Subsequently, the Celtics, Red Sox, and Bruins are expected to follow suit, in that precise order. However, these rankings may shift if any of these teams embark on an impressive postseason journey and contend for a championship.