I’m Making These 3 Bets, Longshot Picks For 2023 Preakness Stakes
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This Saturday, May 20, marks the 134th edition of the Preakness Stakes. The prestigious horse race, famously referred to as “The Black Eyed Susan,” will be held at the renowned Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland.
According to the forecast, the post time is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. and will be broadcasted by NBC, the trusted partner of horse racing enthusiasts.
We have an exciting development this year: Mage, the winner of the Kentucky Derby, has emerged as a strong Triple Crown contender. The good news is, if Mage triumphs on Saturday, it will pave the way for an intense Belmont Stakes showdown in June. As the sole returning Derby starter, Mage will be up against a field of eight competitors, all of whom will bring fresh legs and new energy to the race.
Despite the presence of legal US sportsbooks in Massachusetts, horse betting remains highly popular in the state, with the upcoming Preakness anticipated to attract substantial wagering.
As a fellow Massachusetts horse bettor, I’d like to share my selections for the upcoming 2023 Preakness Stakes.
Handicapping the 2023 Preakness
I have listed below the post number along with the corresponding horse, trainer, odds, and their results from the previous race. Additionally, next to each horse, I have included their Best Beyer number, which serves as a rating for their fastest race. It is worth noting that a Beyer rating of 100 is considered excellent, while an 83 Beyer rating is considered subpar.
1. National Treasure (97)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
The most recent race was held at Santa Anita in the fourth position.
Odds: 4-1
Initially, we had high hopes for this Bobby-Bob-trained colt, expecting greater achievements. He managed to secure a respectable third place in the BC Juvenile last year, leading us to believe that he was yet another promising horse from the Baffert stable. However, Treasure’s progress has been underwhelming. He achieved another third place finish in the G3 Sham in January and then appeared to stagnate. Unfortunately, he had to withdraw from the Sam Philipe due to a foot injury, and ultimately finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.
Coming in fourth at Santa Anita is not necessarily bad, especially considering the layoff. However, as I mentioned earlier, we had higher expectations.
The first position will not harm him – spectators anticipate Treasure to sprint ahead and establish a good speed. Mage would greatly appreciate it. Someone needs to take the lead and take action, ensuring that the race does not start off slowly.
With a record of 4-1, National Treasure’s pedigree is well-known among equestrians, indicating his strong lineage. Additionally, there are hopeful signs that he has fully healed from previous injuries. Only time will tell if this is finally his moment to shine.
With a 4-1 record and a lifetime score of only 1-for-5, I will decline. Considering the limited competition in this field, I can only back one horse.
I Achieved This with My Kentucky Derby Bets
2. Chase the Chaos (83)
Trainer: Ed Mogan
Most recent race: Finished in eighth place at the Cal Derby.
Odds: 50-1
El Camino Real emerged victorious, securing his ticket to the Preakness. However, it has been quite some time since then.
Hey Ed, just a heads up, the Preakness is actually run on dirt. So why are you still training your horse in Oakland on synthetic Tapeta at Golden Gate? Wouldn’t it have been better to take Chaos to Baltimore last week and have him practice on Pimlico dirt?
I understand that your colt has a low probability of winning a prize, but I can provide you with a list of nearby Motel 6s. However, let’s remain hopeful, Ed. In the previous year, the Preakness awarded $40,000 for the fifth position. You’re just three scratches away from that possibility.
3. Mage (105)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Most recent competition: Kentucky Derby (1st place)
Odds: 8-5
Mage, the clear frontrunner after an incredible win and a remarkable 105 Beyer rating at Churchill, is undoubtedly the horse that the horse racing world is rooting for to triumph in the Preakness. His victory would pave the way for an exciting showdown at the Belmont, where we could witness the superb Angel of Empire and the potential comeback of Forte, the top-ranked 3-year-old who has been recovering from an injury.
Is it possible to catch a glimpse of the once highly regarded 3-year old, Arabian Knight? Our last sighting of Knight was in February, where he dominated the competition in the muddy conditions at Oaklawn’s Southwest. Shortly after this triumph, Baffert decided to remove him from contention for the Derby. Bobby-Bob, what happened to him? Please tell me he’s still alive and well.
Could you please recap what happened with your horse, Medina Spirit? If Arabian Knight is in good condition, could you arrange for him to be sent to New York? As I mentioned earlier, due to the limited number of entries, I can only provide assistance to one colt. Therefore, I regretfully have to decline.
But go, Mage, go!
Which is Better in Massachusetts: FanDuel Racing or DK Horse? Don’t forget to read!
4. Coffeewithchris (88)
Trainer: John Salzman Jr.
Last race: Tesio (5th)
Odds: 20-1
How do people come up with such names? And why are they all in one word? Coffee might attempt to take the lead early on, but he won’t endure till the end. His highest Beyer rating of 88 was achieved in a one-turn race. He doesn’t perform well when the races are longer. I’ll pass on him.
The official flower of the Preakness is the Black Eyed Susan, a fact that warrants a brief mention. Many years ago, it was observed by a younger sibling that the Derby had an official flower, known as the “Run For the Roses.” Consequently, the organizers of the Preakness decided to have their own official flower and settled on the Susans, which are also the official state flower of Maryland.
However, the brilliant minds of the past were unaware that Black Eyed Susans bloom in July, while their horse race takes place in May. Consequently, they resorted to using Viking Daisies and coloring them. This posed no issue, and to this very day, no Black Eyed Susans have made an appearance on Preakness Day (unless they were cryogenically preserved).
5. Red Route One (92)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
The most recent race ended with a victory in the Bath House.
Odds: 10-1
I nicknamed Asmussen “Needles” due to his recorded involvement captured by the PETA organization. To defend himself, he successfully argued that the substances he administered were merely vitamins and/or legally allowed hormone supplements, openly challenging anyone to prove otherwise.
Although he has been cited for 22 previous vitamin violations, this individual continues to train. Red Route One, a respectable horse, achieved victory at Oaklawn recently. I personally witnessed some remarkable fast closing efforts from him during the spring stretch.
While he certainly excels at finishing strong, the horse’s speed is not particularly impressive. To successfully overtake exhausted ponies in the final stretch, he requires a swift pace from the beginning.
I highly doubt he will understand it. Let’s move on.
6. Perform (85)
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Last race: Tesio (1st)
Odds: 15-1
Even though I have Irish roots, I always struggle to understand why Irish names have so many consonants scattered throughout. It’s fascinating how “perform” becomes “Preakness” after the owners paid a $150,000 nomination fee to enter their horse following its victory in the Tesio Stakes at Laurel. If only they had believed in their colt more in January, they would have only paid $600 for the fee. It’s a clear case of lacking faith.
To put it in perspective, roughly 40,000 thoroughbred foals are born annually. However, only a mere 1% of owners are willing to invest $600. Consequently, the aspirations of 99% of owners are more constrained.
If, by any chance, you happen to have incredible luck, like purchasing a Funny Cide, you will be given another opportunity to nominate and submit your fee before the end of March, set at $6,000. However, once that deadline passes, the cost significantly increases.
I am not considering Shug’s horse, Perform, at all.
I would be thrilled to witness Shug’s victory, but I need to keep my distance. Nonetheless, if anyone is searching for a promising underdog, one who recently emerged victorious in their last race in Maryland, then I have observed riskier wagers.
7. Blazing Sevens (93)
Trainer: Chad Brown
The most recent race was the Blue Grass, where they finished in third place.
Odds: 6-1
I don’t believe trainer Chad Brown’s recent success in winning two Preakness races, or his acquisition of the unemployed top jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., will make a difference. Sevens had an opportunity to make a significant move in the Blue Grass race, but he failed to do so. Even with Irad, who lost his mount due to the suspension of top colt Forte, their combined efforts are insufficient.
Going elsewhere.
8. First Mission (98)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last race: Lexington (1st)
Odds: 5-2
I had a great admiration for Street Sense, his father, during his racing days. First Mission, on the other hand, appears to be a late bloomer. However, he has shown promising performance in his recent two races over longer distances, which aligns with his pedigree. Throughout the spring, I have been supporting Cox’s horses, and I see no reason to change my loyalty now. First Mission is my boy, and I plan on placing a bet on him using my FanDuel Racing Massachusetts app.
My Preakness bets
I will place a $100 wager on the nose as my preferred bet for the Preakness.
Betting on this race is simple. I have chosen No. 8 First Mission, so I will place all my wages on him. I won’t be considering exactas or trifectas.
If First Mission succeeds, it is highly probable that Mage will follow closely behind, resulting in a minimal payout. Hence, it is recommended to place a $100 bet solely on No. 8 First Mission to win. Avoid placing bets for a place or show.
Furthermore, I must exclude trifecta box bets as it is evident that using both Mage and First Mission would be necessary. Consequently, I ponder how one could possibly profit from such a wager. Should I consider including a highly improbable contender? However, upon evaluating contenders No. 2 and No. 4, it becomes apparent that they are utterly hopeless.
No, I prefer to keep it straightforward. I suggest placing a good bet on No. 8 and experimenting with some trifecta key bets with No. 8 as the top choice.
Trifeca keys another cheap betting option ($6)
In order for it to work, Tri-key No. 8 should include two or three horses beneath it. However, the crucial factor is that First Mission must emerge as the winner.
When using a trifecta key, you select one horse to win and a combination of horses to secure second and third place.
By keeping the bet affordable, there is a chance for a significant payout if your unlikely choices succeed. Placing a $1 tri-key wager, selecting one horse as the primary winner and three others as secondary choices, will require a total cost of $6.
The no-Mage trifecta box ($24)
Introducing the unspoken wager: The trifecta-box for non-Mages.
The Mage, also known as the magician, hurls his jockey towards the trifecta box at the starting gate.
Occasionally, when there is a clear frontrunner in a relatively small or average-sized competition, I may place a trifecta bet on three or four horses excluding the prominent favorite.
It’s definitely a risky bet. Mage might have a chance at defeating some of this year’s competitors even with just three legs. However, considering the circumstances, I plan to place a $6 bet on a trifecta box with three horses. To ensure that a hopeless wonder doesn’t ruin my chances of winning, I’ll play a $24 no-Mage trifecta box with four ponies instead.
Closing thoughts
I’ve been informed that Baffert is sending three of his horses to the East Coast through Federal Express, specifically via Newark. They will later be transported by van to Baltimore. It’s quite intriguing, isn’t it? I wonder what the cost is per pound for this service, as Baffert has a reputation for being a horse-thief (just ask F. Springer, the true trainer of War Emblem) and a convicted drug cheater. It wouldn’t surprise me if Baffert attempted to remove their horse shoes and store them in his personal bag. You can never be too sure with him.
And that’s it.
If you or someone you care about is facing challenges related to gambling, don’t hesitate to reach out for help. You can call 1-800-327-5050 or visit www.mahelpline.org/problemgambling to connect with a knowledgeable specialist who is available round the clock and provides assistance free of charge.
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