New England Patriots Playoff Scenarios

Written By Caleb Tallman on January 6, 2023
New England Patriots futures bets you can still make

With one week left in the NFL regular season and the Patriots in a playoff chase, we are bringing you the latest New England Patriots odds of making the playoffs. With just one game left, there are several scenarios where the Pats could find their way into the playoffs. 

Patriots Playoff Odds

Patriots playoff odds are available at most major Massachusetts sportsbooks and have been shifting each week as the Patriots, and the teams around them, win or lose games. 

Right now, the best value bet for the Patriots to make the playoffs is at BetRivers, which has +163 odds for New England to make the postseason.

BetRivers Yes: +163
No: -200
Sports Illustrated Yes: +160

Related news: New England Patriots Super Bowl Odds Update

AFC Standings for Wild Card Playoff Race

The Patriots have been eliminated from AFC East contention, but can still make the playoffs as a wild card. 

New England is fighting for the last of three AFC playoff wild cards against four other teams: Miami, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee.

The other two wild card spots were clinched already, first by whoever finishes second in the AFC North (Ravens or Bengals), and the Chargers.

The Titans and the Jaguars are fighting for the AFC South Division race. One of those two is guaranteed to make the playoffs based on the winner of the division. They play each other this weekend. If the Jaguars lose, they could still make the playoffs in a wild card spot, depending on what happens in other games. 

While the Bengals and Ravens in the AFC North are still fighting for the division title, the loser has already clinched a wild-card playoff spot.

Rank & Team Wins Losses Notes
#4 Jacksonville Jaguars 8 8 Division Leader, Titans still in contention
#5 Los Angeles Chargers 10 6 1st Wild Card Spot, Have clinched a wildcard spot
#6 Baltimore Ravens 10 6 2nd Wild Card Spot, Have clinch a wildcard spot still in contention in AFC North
#7 New England Patriots 8 8 3rd Wild Card Spot
#8 Miami Dolphins 8 8 1st Spot out of Playoffs
#9 Pittsburgh Steelers 8 8 2nd Spot out of Playoffs
#11 Tennessee Titans 7 9 Still in contention for division, their only way to make Playoffs

New England’s Playoff Competition: Remaining Schedule and Game Odds This Week

Tennessee Titans

Record: 7-9

Week 16: Home vs. Texans — L, 19-14

Week 17: Home vs. Cowboys — L, 27-13 on Thursday Night Football

Week 18: Away at Jaguars — The Titans are 6.5-point underdogs this week on Caesars Massachusetts.

Miami Dolphins

Record: 8-8

Week 16: Home vs. Packers — L, 26-20

Week 17: Away at Patriots — L, 23-21

Week 18: Home vs. Jets— The Dolphins are 3-point favorites this week on DraftKings Massachusetts.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 8-8

Week 16: Away at Jets — W, 19-3

Week 17: Away at Texans — W, 31-3

Week 18: Home vs. Titans — The Jaguars are 6.5-point favorites this week on BetMGM Massachusetts.

New York Jets – Eliminated

Record: 7-9

Week 16: Home vs. Jaguars — L, 19-3

Week 17: Away at Seahawks — L, 23-6

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 8-8

Week 16: Home vs. Raiders — W, 13-10

Week 17: Away at Ravens — W, 16-13

Week 18: Home vs. Cleveland — The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites this week on FanDuel Massachusetts.

Las Vegas Raiders – Eliminated

Record: 6-10

Week 16: Away at Steelers — L, 13-10

Week 17: Home vs. 49ers — L, 37-34

Patriots Playoff Scenarios

The best case for the Patriots right now is to win on Sunday. If that happens, they are guaranteed to make the playoffs. That being said, there is still a scenario in which the Patriots lose but still get in. 

Record: 8-8

Week 16: Home vs. Bengals — L, 22-18

Week 17: Home vs. Dolphins — W, 23-21

Week 18: Away at Bills — The Patriots are +7 underdogs this week.

If New England loses this week, it is still possible for them to make the playoffs. The Patriots would need the Jaguars to win and have both the Steelers and Dolphins lose. 

Patriots Competitors Scenarios

It is easy for New England. If the Patriots win this week, they will make the playoffs. For reference, let’s go through a quick breakdown of the scenarios involving a New England loss this week, and what the Patriots would need others to do to still make the playoffs.

Tennesse Titans

The Titans can only make the playoffs if they beat Jacksonville this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Jaguars lose to the Titans, they would need the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers to lose and finish 8-9. In that situation, the Jaguars, due to tiebreakers, would make the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins’ path to the playoffs is simple, Miami needs to win and New England to lose and to make the playoffs. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers need to win and have both Miami and New England lose to make the playoffs.

It gets very complicated if ties become involved. But if that type of further scenario breakdown interests you, check out the ESPN NFL Playoff Machine

If you are a Pats fan, you want them to win. No matter what, if the Patriots win, they will make the playoffs.

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